Update: U.S. Sector Rotation Strategy July 2019
Rules-Based Strategy Update: U.S. Sector Rotation Strategy July 2019
The U.S. Sector rotation strategy is a popular strategy for people looking to beat the market. This is the July 2019 strategy update which continues to provide traders with an indication of how the strategy performs in real life.
As a reminder, the U.S. Sector Rotation strategy buys the top three performing U.S. sectors based on the prior 3-month performance. It is based off a strategy outlined in a paper by Meb Faber. I provided information on how the strategy works in the U.S. Sector Rotation strategy overview.
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U.S. Sector Rotation Strategy Rules-Based Investing
The U.S. Sector Rotation portfolio trades based on specific rules that tell the investor what sectors to hold each month. Here are the rules of the strategy:
- Trades the nine Sector SPDR ETFs.
- On the last trading day of each month, calculate the prior 3-month (63 trading days) return for each ETF using historical adjusted closing prices.
- Sort the ETFs from highest 3-month return to lowest 3-month return. The ETF with the best 3-month return has the strongest momentum.
- Buy Rules: If the S&P 500 index is trading above its 10-month (200 day) moving average, then buy the three sector ETFs with the highest 3-month return.
- Sell Rules: If the S&P 500 is trading below its 10-month (200 day) moving average, then sell all three ETFs and move to cash.
- Rebalance: At the end of each month, if the S&P 500 index is trading above its 10-month (200 day) moving average, sell the sector ETF(s) that have moved out of the top three, and replace with the sector ETF(s) that are now in the top 3.
This is one of the simpler systems to use and trade.
Monthly Signals: U.S. Sector Rotation Investing
Each month I generate the signals for the portfolio using TC2000 and AmiBroker. If you want to give TC2000 a try in order to generate the signals for the strategies on Robotic Investing, then use this link for $25 off.
One of the rules is that the S&P 500 must be trading above its 10-month moving average in order to make any buys. The S&P 500 was above that level at the beginning of the month so the system is in sector positions.
I use TC2000/Amibroker to determine the top 3 ETFs. For July 2019, we can see that this month’s holdings are XLK, XLB, and XLF (these calculations were run at the beginning of the month – the ranking may be different today).
Strategy Tracking & Performance: U.S. Sector Rotation Investing
Here is the portfolio tracker and performance chart for Stocks on the Move. I use the Morningstar Portfolio Tracker to track all the systems at Robotic Investing.
This portfolio was started on July 2nd, 2018.
Note: Please use the Total Return values and ignore personal return. Morningstar.
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