|Supercharged Index Investing|
- MDY - S&P Mid-Cap ETF
- RSP - S&P500 Equal Weight ETF
- Hold 50/50 in MDY & RSP
- Sell MDY & RSP if SPY closes below 10-month moving average on monthly chart
- Re-buy MDY & RSP if SPY closes above 10-month moving average on monthly chart
|Supercharged Index Investing||Robotic Investing
|Accelerated Dual Momentum|
- SPY - S&P500 ETF
- VSS - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF
- TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury
- Compute 1, 3, and 6 Month Returns for SPY, VSS, and TLT
- If SPY Combined Return > VSS, and SPY Combined Return > 0, Buy SPY
- If SPY Combined Return < VSS, and VSS Combined Return > 0, Buy VSS
- IF VSS Combined Return < 0 and SPY Combined Return < 0, Buy TLT
|Accelerated Dual Momentum||
|TQQQ Trend Following|
- TQQQ - Proshares UltraPro 3x QQQ
- Buy TQQQ when QQQ closes above its 3-month moving average
- Sell TQQQ when QQQ closes below its 10-month moving average
- Re-buy TQQQ when QQQ closes above its 3-month moving average again
|TQQQ Trend Following||Robotic Investing
|Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio|
- VT - Vanguard Total World Stock ETF
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
- IAU: iShares Gold Trust ETF
- SHY: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
- Segment portfolio into 25% segments
- Purchase each of the four asset classes
- Rebalance annually
|Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio||
- SPY - S&P 500 Index ETF
- VEU- Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
- BIL - SPDR Lehman 1-3 Month T Bill
- The Dual Momentum rules includes four ETFs. Three of them are meant for investment, and the other is meant for comparison only. The three meant for investment are SPY, VEU, and BND. The ETF meant for comparison is BIL.
- Calculate the 12-month returns for both SPY and VEU. Choose the ETF that has performed better.
- Compare that ETF to the returns of BIL. If it has performed better than BIL, the buy the equity fund. If BIL has performed better, then buy BND.
- Repeat steps 1 - 3 at the end of each month and replace one of the three ETFs with the strongest performing asset.
- Russell 2000 ETF
- Nasdaq-100 ETF
- S&P MidCap 400 ETF
- S&P 500 ETF
- High Yield Bond ETF
- 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
- The system works by getting into "Risk-On" trades and "Hedge" trades (at the same time). An investor's portfolio is divided into a 60/40 split, with 60% of the available cash being deployed into the "Risk-On" trade which are equities. The other 40% is invested into "Hedge" trades which are bond ETFs.
- With the "Risk-On" trade, the investor buys one of four ETFs. The ETF that is bought has the best month momentum (performance) based on a set period of time. These four ETFs track different equity portions of the market, so you are effectively buying the strongest trending of the four.
- The "Risk-On" trade has a threshold for investing in one of the four ETFs, or a cash. The best performing equity ETF is only bought if it passes the cash threshold.
- If none of the four ETFs pass the threshold, then the equity portion moves completely to cash.
- With the "Hedge" allocation of the portfolio the investor buys one of two ETF bond funds. The bond fund that is purchased is the one with the best momentum based on the same period as the equity ETFs.
|Stocks on the Move|
- Highest ranked momentum stocks from the S&P500
- Determine Market Trend. Buy only if S&P500 is trading above 200 day moving average.
- Calculate momentum scores for each of the stocks in the S&P500.
- Disqualify any stocks that are trading below their 100 day simple moving average.
- Disqualify any stocks that have gapped up or down 15% in the past 90 days.
- Build initial portfolio with the strongest trending momentum stocks in the S&P500 using position sizing method
- Rebalance portfolio weekly by recalculating momentum and sell any stock that has moved below its 100 day moving average, is no longer in the top 100 momentum stocks, had a 15% gap up or down, or has left the S&P 500. Replace those stocks with next highest momentum stock.
- Rebalance positions bi-weekly to correct position sizing amounts
- *Note: For the tracking portfolio, I do not adjust the portfolio weekly - it is done monthly. In addition, I do not position rebalance.
|Stocks on the Move||
|U.S. Sector Rotation|
- XLP Consumer Staples
- XLE Energy
- XLF Financials
- XLV Health Care
- XLI Industrials
- XLB Materials
- XLY Consumer Discretionary
- XLK Technology
- XLU Utilities
- Trades the nine Sector SPDR ETFs.
- On the last trading day of each month, calculate the prior 3-month (63 trading days) return for each ETF using historical adjusted closing prices.
- Sort the ETFs from highest 3-month return to lowest 3-month return. The ETF with the best 3-month return has the strongest momentum.
- Buy Rules: If the S&P 500 index is trading above its 10-month (200 day) moving average, then buy the three sector ETFs with the highest 3-month return.
- Sell Rules: If the S&P 500 is trading below its 10-month (200 day) moving average, then sell all three ETFs and move to cash.
- Rebalance: At the end of each month, if the S&P 500 index is trading above its 10-month (200 day) moving average, sell the sector ETF(s) that have moved out of the top three, and replace with the sector ETF(s) that are now in the top 3.
|U.S. Sector Rotation||Meb Faber
- The ETFs the strategy on this site uses are from BlackRock. They have an ETF dedicated to most investable countries around the world. You can easily search for the ETFs that match the cheap countries you need to purchase.
- Trades country specific ETFs.
- When ready to build a Global Value Investing, go to the Research Affiliates website and enter the Asset Allocation tool under the Tools menu.
- At the bottom of the screen, click on the Download link. Open the Excel file that is downloaded.
- Navigate to the "Expected.Returns.All" sheet, and sort the list by the "Expected Return (Nominal)" column. I set up data filters on the heading row, and the sort highest to lowest.
- Buy Rules: Buy the ETFs for the 10 individual countries with the highest expected returns. Buy each ETF using an equal weighting.
- Sell Rules: One year following the set-up of the portfolio, download a new version of the above spreadsheet and sort by expected returns as above. If any countries have fallen out of the top 10, sell that country specific ETF.
- Rebalance: Replace any sold countries with the new countries that are now in the top 10. You should always have ten ETFs in your global value investing portfolio.
- Divide investment capital into 60% equities and 40% fixed income.
- Buy ETFs for each of the seven asset classes in the portfolio.
- Rebalance annually.